@article{ref1,
title="Spatio-temporal distribution of suicide risk in Iran: a Bayesian hierarchical analysis of repeated cross-sectional data",
journal="Journal of preventive medicine and public health",
year="2022",
author="Hashemi Nazari, Seyed Saeed and Mansori, Kamyar and Nazari Kangavari, Hajar and Shojaei, Ahmad and Arsang-Jang, Shahram",
volume="55",
number="2",
pages="164-172",
abstract="OBJECTIVES: We aimed to estimate the space-time distribution of the risk of suicide mortality in Iran from 2006 to 2016. <br><br>METHODS: In this repeated cross-sectional study, the age-standardized risk of suicide mortality from 2006 to 2016 was determined. To estimate the cumulative and temporal risk, the Besag, York, and Mollié and Bernardinelli models were used. <br><br>RESULTS: The relative risk of suicide mortality was greater than 1 in 43.0% of Iran's provinces (posterior probability >0.8; range, 0.46 to 3.93). The spatio-temporal model indicated a high risk of suicide in 36.7% of Iran's provinces. In addition, significant upward temporal trends in suicide risk were observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, Kermanshah, and Gilan. A significantly decreasing pattern of risk was observed for men (β, -0.013; 95% credible interval [CrI], -0.010 to -0.007), and a stable pattern of risk was observed for women (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.010 to 0.007). A decreasing pattern of suicide risk was observed for those aged 15-29 years (β, -0.006; 95% CrI, -0.010 to -0.0001) and 30-49 years (β, -0.001; 95% CrI, -0.018 to -0.002). The risk was stable for those aged >50 years. <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The highest risk of suicide mortality was observed in Iran's northwestern provinces and among Kurdish women. Although a low risk of suicide mortality was observed in the provinces of Tehran, Fars, and Gilan, the risk in these provinces is increasing rapidly compared to other regions.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1975-8375",
doi="10.3961/jpmph.21.385",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.3961/jpmph.21.385"
}