@article{ref1,
title="5-year incidence of suicide-risk in youth: A gradient tree boosting and SHAP study",
journal="Journal of affective disorders",
year="2021",
author="Ballester, Pedro L. and Cardoso, Taiane de A. and Moreira, Fernanda Pedrotti and da Silva, Ricardo A. and Mondin, Thaíse Campos and Araujo, Ricardo M. and Kapczinski, Flavio and Frey, Benicio N. and Jansen, Karen and Souza, Luciano D. de Mattos",
volume="ePub",
number="ePub",
pages="ePub-ePub",
abstract="Background : Machine learning methods for suicidal behaviour so far have failed to be implemented as a prediction tool. In order to use the capabilities of machine learning to model complex phenomenon, we assessed the predictors of suicide risk using state-of-the-art model explanation methods.   Methods : Prospective cohort study including a community sample of 1,560 young adults aged between 18-24. The first wave took place between 2007 and 2009, and the second wave took place between 2012 and 2014. Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were assessed at baseline. Incidence of suicide risk at five-years of follow-up was the main outcome. The outcome was assessed using the Mini Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) at both waves.   Results : The risk factors for the incidence of suicide risk at follow-up were: female sex, lower socioeconomic status, older age, not studying, presence of common mental disorder symptoms, and poor quality of life. The interaction between overall health and socioeconomic status in relation to suicide risk was also captured and shows a shift from protection to risk by socioeconomic status as overall health increases.   Limitations : Proximal factors associated with the incidence of suicide risk were not assessed.   Conclusions : Our findings indicate that factors related to poor quality of life, not studying, and common mental disorder symptoms of young adults are already in place prior to suicide risk. Most factors present critical non-linear patterns that were identified. These findings are clinically relevant because they can help clinicians to early detect suicide risk.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0165-0327",
doi="10.1016/j.jad.2021.08.033",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2021.08.033"
}