@article{ref1,
title="Targeting fatal traffic collision risk from prior non-fatal collisions in Toronto",
journal="Camb J Evid Based Polic",
year="2020",
author="Bavcevic, Zeljko and Harinam, Vincent",
volume="4",
number="3",
pages="187-201",
abstract="Research question  How accurately can all locations of 44 fatal collisions in 1 year be forecasted across 1403 micro-areas in Toronto, based upon locations of all 1482 non-fatal collisions in the preceding 4 years?  Data  All 1482 non-fatal traffic collisions from 2008 through 2011 and all 44 fatal traffic collisions in 2012 in the City of Toronto, Ontario, were geocoded from public records to 1403 micro-areas called 'hexagonal tessellations'.   Methods  The total number of non-fatal traffic collisions in Period 1 (2008 through 2011) was summed within each micro-area. The areas were then classified into seven categories of frequency of non-fatal collisions: 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 or more. We then divided the number of micro-areas in each category in Period 1 into the total number of fatal traffic collisions in each category in Period 2 (2012). The sensitivity and specificity of forecasting fatal collision risk based on prior non-fatal collisions were then calculated for five different targeting strategies.   Findings  The micro-locations of 70.5% of fatal collisions in Period 2 had experienced at least 1 non-fatal collision in Period 1. In micro-areas that had zero non-fatal collisions during Period 1, only 1.7% had a fatal collision in Period 2. Across all areas, the probability of a fatal collision in the area during Period 2 increased with the number of non-fatal collisions in Period 1, with 6 or more non-fatal collisions in Period 1 yielding a risk of fatal collision in Period 2 that was 8.7 times higher than in areas with no non-fatal collisions. This pattern is evidence that targeting 25% of micro-areas effectively could cut total traffic fatalities in a given year by up to 50%.   Conclusion  Highly elevated risks of traffic fatalities can be forecasted based on prior non-fatal collisions, targeting a smaller portion of the city for more concentrated investment in saving lives.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="2520-1344",
doi="10.1007/s41887-020-00054-z",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41887-020-00054-z"
}