@article{ref1,
title="The contagion externality of a superspreading event: the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally  and COVID-19",
journal="Southern economic journal",
year="2020",
author="Dave, Dhaval and McNichols, Drew and Sabia, Joseph J.",
volume="ePub",
number="ePub",
pages="ePub-ePub",
abstract="Large in-person gatherings of travelers who do not socially distance are classified  as the &quot;highest risk&quot; for COVID-19 spread by the Centers for Disease Control and  Prevention (CDC). From August 7-16, 2020, nearly 500,000 motorcycle enthusiasts  converged on Sturgis, South Dakota for its annual rally in an environment without  mask-wearing requirements or other mitigating policies. This study is the first to  explore this event's public health impacts. First, using anonymized cell phone data,  we document that foot traffic at restaurants/bars, retail establishments, and  entertainment venues rose substantially at event locations. Stay-at-home behavior  among local residents fell. Second, using a synthetic control approach, we find that  the COVID-19 case rate increased substantially in Meade County and in the state of  South Dakota in the month following the Rally. Finally, using a  difference-in-differences model to assess nationwide spread, we find that following  the Sturgis event, counties outside of South Dakota that contributed the highest  inflows of rally attendees experienced a 6.4-12.5% increase in COVID-19 cases  relative to counties without inflows. Our findings highlight that local policy  decisions assessing the tradeoff between local economic benefits and COVID-19 health  costs will not be socially optimal in the presence of large contagion externalities.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0038-4038",
doi="10.1002/soej.12475",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/soej.12475"
}