@article{ref1,
title="Heat-related mortality",
journal="Deutsches Ärzteblatt International",
year="2020",
author="An der Heiden, Matthias and Muthers, Stefan and Niemann, Hildegard and Buchholz, Udo and Grabenhenrich, Linus and Matzarakis, Andreas",
volume="117",
number="37",
pages="603-609",
abstract="BACKGROUND: As a consequence of global warming, heat waves are expected to become  more frequent, more intense, and longer. The elderly and persons with chronic  diseases are especially vulnerable to health problems due to heat. This article is  devoted to the question of the extent to which the effects of heat waves in Germany  are changing over time, and whether preventive health measures are working. <br><br>METHODS:  We use a statistical model to quantify the effect of high mean temperatures on  mortality. Within this model, different exposure-response curves for the three  temporal intervals 1992-2000, 2001-2010, and 2011-2017 are estimated. Attention is  also paid to the delayed effect on mortality of high mean temperatures in the  preceding week. <br><br>RESULTS: Our analysis reveals a clear, systematic association of the  mean temperature in the current week, as well as the mean temperature in the  preceding week, with weekly mortality. This association is more pronounced for  higher age groups and decreases over the years under analysis, with the exception of  a relatively weak effect of heat in southern Germany in 1992-2000. The strongest  effects were related to the heat waves in 1994 and 2003, with approximately 10 200  and 9600 fatalities, respectively. Approximately 7800 fatalities were estimated for  the summer of 2006, and 4700 and 5200 for 2010 and 2015, respectively. <br><br>CONCLUSION:  In Germany, as elsewhere, climate change has been causing more frequent, more  intense, and longer periods of heat in the summer. The harmful effect of heat on  health is reduced by adaptive processes, presumably including successful preventive  measures. Such measures should be extended in the future, and perhaps complemented  by other measures in order to further diminish the effect of heat on mortality.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1866-0452",
doi="10.3238/arztebl.2020.0603",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.3238/arztebl.2020.0603"
}