@article{ref1,
title="Time-series study of associations between rates of people affected by disasters and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle",
journal="International journal of environmental research and public health",
year="2019",
author="Lam, Holly Ching Yu and Haines, Andy and McGregor, Glenn and Chan, Emily Ying Yang and Hajat, Shakoor",
volume="16",
number="17",
pages="e16173146-e16173146",
abstract="The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of climatic variability that can have far reaching consequences for public health globally. We explored whether global, regional and country-level rates of people affected by natural disasters (PAD) are linked to ENSO. Annual numbers of PAD between 1964-2017 recorded on the EM-DAT disaster database were combined with UN population data to create PAD rates. Time-series regression was used to assess de-trended associations between PAD and 2 ENSO indices: Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and multivariate El Niño Index (MEI). Over 95% of PAD were caused by floods, droughts or storms, with over 75% of people affected by these three disasters residing in Asia. Globally, drought-related PAD rate increased sharply in El Niño years (versus neutral years). Flood events were the disaster type most strongly associated with El Niño regionally: in South Asia, flood-related PAD increased by 40.5% (95% CI 19.3% to 65.6%) for each boundary point increase in ONI (<i>p</i> = 0.002). India was found to be the country with the largest increase in flood-related PAD rates following an El Niño event, with the Philippines experiencing the largest increase following La Niña. Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)-analyses showed consistent results. These findings can be used to inform disaster preparedness strategies.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1661-7827",
doi="10.3390/ijerph16173146",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16173146"
}