@article{ref1,
title="Collision prediction in roundabouts: a comparative study of extreme value theory approaches",
journal="Transportmetrica A: transport science",
year="2019",
author="Orsini, Federico and Gecchele, Gregorio and Gastaldi, Massimiliano and Rossi, Riccardo",
volume="15",
number="2",
pages="556-572",
abstract="This work contributes to study the application of extreme value theory (EVT) in road safety analysis, estimating the risk of being involved in an entering-circulating collision in single-lane roundabouts. Detailed trajectory data of the vehicles were derived from a driving simulator experiment, and the time-to-collision (TTC) was used as a surrogate measure of safety. Three EVT approaches were applied, tested and compared: (1) the Generalized Extreme Value distribution used in the block maxima (BM) approach, (2) the Generalized Pareto Distribution used in the peak-over-threshold approach (POT), with negated-TTC (nTTC), and (3) shifted-reciprocal-TTC (srTTC). Case-study results analysis showed that BM and POT with shifted-reciprocal-TTC confidence intervals included the number of observed crashes, while POT with negated-TTC did not include it. According to these findings, both BM and POT-with-shifted-reciprocal-TTC appear promising and deserve further attention in order to develop effective ready-to-practice crash prediction models, useful in intersection design and operational analysis.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="2324-9935",
doi="10.1080/23249935.2018.1515271",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/23249935.2018.1515271"
}