@article{ref1,
title="Regional-scale probabilistic shoreline evolution modelling for flood-risk assessment",
journal="Coastal engineering (Amsterdam)",
year="2017",
author="Stripling, Stuart and Panzeri, Michael and Blanco, Belen and Rossington, Kate and Sayers, Paul and Borthwick, Alistair",
volume="121",
number="",
pages="129-144",
abstract="Rapid deterministic modelling of shoreline evolution at regional and coastal-scheme scale enables Monte-Carlo simulations by which long-term shoreline statistics can be estimated. This paper describes UnaLinea, a fast, accurate finite difference solver of the one-line sediment continuity equation. The model is verified for the evolution of an initially straight shoreline of a plane beach subject to regular breaking waves at constant angle of incidence in the presence of either a groyne or a continuous single-point feed of sediment. Grid convergence and stability tests are used to obtain accurate, stable results, with satisfactory computational efficiency. Influences of wave input filtering and event-based sediment loading are considered. The rapid deterministic model is applied to Monte-Carlo simulations of the evolution of the west coast of Calabria, Italy for different scenarios including increased sediment load from a river and selected beach nourishment. The potential role of probabilistic shoreline evolution in regional coastal flood-risk assessment is explored through application to an idealised stretch of the Holderness coastline, U.K., where flood depths and expected damage are estimated for a 1000 year return period event.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0378-3839",
doi="10.1016/j.coastaleng.2016.12.002",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2016.12.002"
}