@article{ref1,
title="Repeated exposure to established high risk workload scenarios improves non-contact injury prediction in elite Australian footballers",
journal="International journal of sports physiology and performance",
year="2018",
author="Colby, Marcus J. and Dawson, Brian and Peeling, Peter and Heasman, Jarryd and Rogalski, Brent and Drew, Michael K. and Stares, Jordan",
volume="13",
number="9",
pages="1130-1135",
abstract="OBJECTIVES: To assess the effect of multiple high risk scenario (HRS) exposures on non-contact injury prediction in elite Australian footballers. <br><br>DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. <br><br>METHODS: Sessional workload data (session-rating of perceived exertion; GPS-derived distance, sprint distance, maximum velocity) from one club (n= 60 players) over 3 seasons were collated; several established HRS were also defined. Accumulated HRS sessional exposures were calculated retrospectively (previous 1-8 weeks). Non-contact injury data was documented. Univariate and multivariate Poisson regression models determined injury incidence rate ratios (IRR) while accounting for moderating effects (pre-season workload volume, playing experience). Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristics (area under curve: AUC). <br><br>RESULTS: Very low (0-8 sessions: IRR=5.76, 95% CI=1.69-19.66) and very high (>15 sessions: IRR=4.70, 95% CI=1.49-14.87) exposures to >85% of an individual's maximal velocity over the previous 8 weeks were associated with greater injury risk compared to moderate exposures (11-12 sessions), and displayed the best model performance (AUC=0.64). A single session corresponding to a very low chronic load condition over the previous week for all workload variables was associated with increased injury risk, with sprint distance (IRR=3.25, 95% CI=1.95-5.40) providing the most accurate prediction model (AUC=0.63). <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Minimal exposure to high velocity efforts (maximum speed exposure, sprint volume) was associated with the greatest injury risk. Being under-loaded may be a mediator for non-contact injury in elite Australian football. Pre-season workload and playing experience were not moderators of this effect.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1555-0265",
doi="10.1123/ijspp.2017-0696",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1123/ijspp.2017-0696"
}