@article{ref1,
title="Predictive validity of the HKT-R risk assessment tool: two and 5-year violent recidivism in a nationwide sample of Dutch forensic psychiatric patients",
journal="International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology",
year="2018",
author="Bogaerts, Stefan and Spreen, Marinus and Ter Horst, Paul and Gerlsma, Coby",
volume="62",
number="8",
pages="2259-2270",
abstract="This study has examined the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Future [ Historisch Klinisch Toekomst] Revised risk assessment scheme in a cohort of 347 forensic psychiatric patients, which were discharged between 2004 and 2008 from any of 12 highly secure forensic centers in the Netherlands. Predictive validity was measured 2 and 5 years after release. Official reconviction data obtained from the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice were used as outcome measures. Violent reoffending within 2 and 5 years after discharge was assessed. With regard to violent reoffending, results indicated that the predictive validity of the Historical domain was modest for 2 (area under the curve [AUC] =.75) and 5 (AUC =.74) years. The predictive validity of the Clinical domain was marginal for 2 (admission: AUC =.62; discharge: AUC =.63) and 5 (admission: AUC =.69; discharge: AUC =.62) years after release. The predictive validity of the Future domain was modest (AUC =.71) for 2 years and low for 5 (AUC =.58) years. The total score of the instrument was modest for 2 years (AUC =.78) and marginal for 5 (AUC =.68) years. Finally, the Final Risk Judgment was modest for 2 years (AUC =.78) and marginal for 5 (AUC =.63) years time at risk. It is concluded that this risk assessment instrument appears to be a satisfactory instrument for risk assessment.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0306-624X",
doi="10.1177/0306624X17717128",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0306624X17717128"
}