@article{ref1,
title="Predictive accuracy of the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 for violence in forensic psychiatric wards in Japan",
journal="Criminal behaviour and mental health",
year="2016",
author="Arai, Kaoru and Takano, Ayumi and Nagata, Takako and Hirabayashi, Naotsugu",
volume="ePub",
number="ePub",
pages="ePub-ePub",
abstract="BACKGROUND: Most structured assessment tools for assessing risk of violence were developed in Western countries, and evidence for their effectiveness is not well established in Asian countries. AIMS: Our aim was to examine the predictive accuracy of the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) for violence in forensic mental health inpatient units in Japan. <br><br>METHODS: A retrospective record study was conducted with a complete 2008-2013 cohort of forensic psychiatric inpatients at the National Center Hospital of Neurology and Psychiatry, Tokyo. Forensic psychiatrists were trained in use of the HCR-20 and asked to complete it as part of their admission assessment. The completed forms were then retained by the researchers and not used in clinical practice; for this, clinicians relied solely on national legally required guidelines. Violent outcomes were determined at 3 and 6 months after the assessment. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to calculate the predictive accuracy of the HCR-20 for violence. <br><br>RESULTS: Area under the curve analyses suggested that the HCR-20 total score is a good predictor of violence in this cohort, with the clinical and risk sub-scales showing good predictive accuracy, but the historical sub-scale not doing so. Area under the curve figures were similar at 3 months and at 6 months. <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: Our results are consistent with studies previously conducted in Western countries. This suggests that the HCR-20 is an effective tool for supporting risk of violence assessment in Japanese forensic psychiatric wards. Its widespread use in clinical practice could enhance safety and would certainly promote transparency in risk-related decision-making. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.<br><br>Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0957-9664",
doi="10.1002/cbm.2007",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cbm.2007"
}