@article{ref1,
title="Serum biomarkers as predictors of long-term outcome in severe traumatic brain injury: analysis from a randomized placebo-controlled Phase II clinical trial",
journal="Journal of neurosurgery",
year="2016",
author="Raheja, Amol and Sinha, Sumit and Samson, Neha and Bhoi, Sanjeev and Subramanian, Arulselvi and Sharma, Pushpa and Sharma, Bhawani Shankar",
volume="125",
number="3",
pages="631-641",
abstract="OBJECTIVE There has been increased interest in the potential importance of biochemical parameters as predictors of outcome in severe traumatic brain injury (sTBI). <br><br>METHODS Of 107 patients with sTBI (age 18-65 years with a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 4-8 presenting within 8 hours after injury) who were randomized for a placebo-controlled Phase II trial of progesterone with or without hypothermia, the authors serially analyzed serum biomarkers (S100-B, glial fibrillary acidic protein [GFAP], neuron-specific enolase [NSE], tumor necrosis factor-α, interleukin-6 [IL-6], estrogen [Eg], and progesterone [Pg]). This analysis was performed using the sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay technique at admission and 7 days later for 86 patients, irrespective of assigned group. The long-term predictive values of serum biomarkers for dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) score, functional independence measure, and survival status at 6 and 12 months were analyzed using an adjusted binary logistic regression model and receiver operating characteristic curve. <br><br>RESULTS A favorable GOS score (4-5) at 1 year was predicted by higher admission IL-6 (above 108.36 pg/ml; area under the curve [AUC] 0.69, sensitivity 52%, and specificity 78.6%) and Day 7 Pg levels (above 3.15 ng/ml; AUC 0.79, sensitivity 70%, and specificity 92.9%). An unfavorable GOS score (1-3) at 1 year was predicted by higher Day 7 GFAP levels (above 9.50 ng/ml; AUC 0.82, sensitivity 78.6%, and specificity 82.4%). Survivors at 1 year had significantly higher Day 7 Pg levels (above 3.15 ng/ml; AUC 0.78, sensitivity 66.7%, and specificity 90.9%). Nonsurvivors at 1 year had significantly higher Day 7 GFAP serum levels (above 11.14 ng/ml; AUC 0.81, sensitivity 81.8%, and specificity 88.9%) and Day 7 IL-6 serum levels (above 71.26 pg/ml; AUC 0.87, sensitivity 81.8%, and specificity 87%). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, independent predictors of outcome at 1 year were serum levels of Day 7 Pg (favorable GOS-OR 3.24, CI 1.5-7, p = 0.003; and favorable survival-OR 2, CI 1.2-3.5, p = 0.01); admission IL-6 (favorable GOS-OR 1.04, CI 1.00-1.08, p = 0.04); and Day 7 GFAP (unfavorable GOS-OR 0.79, CI 0.65-0.95, p = 0.01; and unfavorable survival-OR 0.80, CI 0.66-0.96, p = 0.01). <br><br>CONCLUSIONS Serial Pg, GFAP, and IL-6 monitoring could aid in prognosticating outcomes in patients with acute sTBI. A cause and effect relationship or a mere association of these biomarkers to outcome needs to be further studied for better understanding of the pathophysiology of sTBI and for choosing potential therapeutic targets. Clinical trial registration no.: CTRI/2009/091/000893 ( http://www.ctri.nic.in ).<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0022-3085",
doi="10.3171/2015.6.JNS15674",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.3171/2015.6.JNS15674"
}