@article{ref1,
title="Risk-based spatial zone determination problem for stage-based evacuation operations",
journal="Transportation research part C: emerging technologies",
year="2014",
author="Hsu, Yu-Ting and Peeta, Srinivas",
volume="41",
number="",
pages="73-89",
abstract="This study seeks to determine risk-based evacuation subzones for stage-based evacuation operations in a region threatened/affected by a disaster so that information-based evacuation strategies can be implemented in real-time for the subzone currently with highest evacuation risk to achieve some system-level performance objectives. Labeled the evacuation risk zone (ERZ), this subzone encompasses the spatial locations containing the population with highest evacuation risk which is a measure based on whether the population at a location can be safely evacuated before the disaster impacts it. The ERZ for a stage is calculated based on the evolving disaster characteristics, traffic demand pattern, and network supply conditions over the region in real-time subject to the resource limitations (personnel, equipment, etc.) of the disaster response operators related to implementing the evacuation strategies. Thereby, the estimated time-dependent lead time to disaster impact at a location and the estimated time-dependent clearance time based on evolving traffic conditions are used to compute evacuation risk. This time-unit measure of evacuation risk enables the ERZ concept to be seamlessly applied to different types of disasters, providing a generalized framework for mass evacuation operations in relation to disaster characteristics. Numerical experiments conducted to analyze the performance of the ERZ-based paradigm highlight its benefits in terms of better adapting to the dynamics of disaster impact and ensuring a certain level of operational performance effectiveness benchmarked against the idealized system optimal traffic pattern for the evacuation operation, while efficiently utilizing available disaster response resources.<p />",
language="en",
issn="0968-090X",
doi="10.1016/j.trc.2014.01.013",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2014.01.013"
}