@article{ref1,
title="Refugee flows, ethnic power relations, and the spread of conflict",
journal="Security studies",
year="2014",
author="Krcmaric, Daniel",
volume="23",
number="1",
pages="182-216",
abstract="Why do some refugee flows cause conflict in the host state and others do not? Drawing on bargaining models of war, I argue refugees are especially likely to cause conflict when they alter the host state's ethnic balance of power. More specifically, I explain why multiple informational and commitment problems arise when refugee flows produce a rapid shift in relative power between ethnic groups. As an empirical strategy, I examine a unique controlled comparison made possible by the influx of Kosovar refugees into Albania and Macedonia in 1999 that eliminates over a dozen competing explanations for civil conflict. I then use process tracing to demonstrate how a change in relative power between ethnic groups fostered violence in Macedonia, whereas the preservation of the ethnic balance facilitated a peaceful refugee flow into Albania. This evidence, though tentative, indicates that a refugee flow's effect on the host state's ethnic balance of power can help explain whether the state experiences peace or conflict.<p />",
language="en",
issn="0963-6412",
doi="10.1080/09636412.2014.874201",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2014.874201"
}