@article{ref1,
title="Fuel age, weather and burn probability in Portugal",
journal="International journal of wildland fire",
year="2012",
author="Fernandes, Manuel and Ferreira, Pedro and Magalhães, Marco and Loureiro, Carlos and Fernandes, Paulo M.",
volume="21",
number="4",
pages="380-384",
abstract="The relative influence of the factors acting on burn probability, namely fuel and weather, is not well understood, especially in Europe. We use a digital fire atlas (1975-2008) and apply survival analysis to individual fires (1998-2008) to describe how burn probability changes with fuel age in Portugal. The typical fire return interval and median fire-free interval vary regionally from 23 to 52 and 18 to 47 years. Increase of the hazard of burning with time is generally near-linear, denoting moderate fuel-age dependency, as in some other shrub-dominated Mediterranean environments. Analysis of complete fire intervals resulted in shorter fire return interval and higher fuel-age dependency of burn probability than findings that included censored observations. Increasingly severe weather conditions either expressed through fire size or by extreme fire danger concurrently decreased fuel-age dependency and selected older fuels. The results are discussed from the viewpoints of fire suppression and fuel treatments.<p /><p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1049-8001",
doi="10.1071/WF10063",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF10063"
}