@article{ref1,
title="Comparing the predictive accuracy of case linkage methods in serious sexual assaults",
journal="Journal of investigative psychology and offender profiling",
year="2013",
author="Winter, Jan Martin and Lemeire, Jan and Meganck, Stijn and Geboers, Jo and Rossi, Gina and Mokros, Andreas",
volume="10",
number="1",
pages="28-56",
abstract="The empirical support for linkage analysis is steadily increasing, but the question remains as to what method of linking is the most effective. We compared a more theory-based, dimensional behavioural approach with a rather pragmatic, multivariate behavioural approach with regard to their accuracy in linking serial sexual assaults in a UK sample of serial sexual assaults (n = 90) and one-off sexual assaults (n = 129). Their respective linkage accuracy was assessed by (1) using seven dimensions derived by non-parametric Mokken scale analysis (MSA) as predictors in discriminant function analysis (DFA) and (2) 46 crime scene characteristics simultaneously in a naive Bayesian classifier (NBC). The dimensional scales predicted 28.9% of the series correctly, whereas the NBC correctly identified 34.5% of the series. However, a subsequent inclusion of non-serial offences in the target group decreased the amount of correct links in the dimensional approach (MSA-DFA: 8.9%; NBC: 32.2%). Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used as a more objective comparison of the two methods under both conditions, confirming that each achieved good accuracies (AUCs = .74-.89), but the NBC performed significantly better than the dimensional approach. The consequences for the practical implementation in behavioural case linkage are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1544-4759",
doi="10.1002/jip.1372",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jip.1372"
}