@article{ref1,
title="Forecasting Automobile Demand for Economies in Transition: A Dynamic Simultaneous-Equation System Approach",
journal="Transportation planning and technology",
year="2002",
author="Abu-Eisheh, Sameer A. and Mannering, Fred L.",
volume="25",
number="4",
pages="311-331",
abstract="The dynamic characteristics of automobile demand are critical for national economic and revenue predictions. Automobile demand and ownership level forecasts are also the basis for travel demand models, land-use-transport interaction models, and transport policies and regulations. In this article, a dynamic automobile demand simulation model is developed utilizing a simultaneous-equation system. The system considers the interaction between supply and demand and the resulting equilibrium. Although forecasting automobile demand has been previously investigated, it has not been within such a dynamic simulation framework. Our model includes the current and lagged automobile quantity and price variables; economic, financial and operating cost variables; and income and government policy variables. The capabilities of the model are then demonstrated through performing a number of simulation experiments considering various growth-development scenarios, changes in operating costs, government policies towards automobile imports, and demographic/employment shifts. Relevant tests are applied to examine the econometric specifications and to evaluate the simulation model performance.<p />",
language="en",
issn="0308-1060",
doi="10.1080/0308106022000019026",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0308106022000019026"
}