@article{ref1,
title="The propagation of uncertainties in failure events",
journal="Reliability engineering",
year="1985",
author="Keey, R.B. and Smith, C.H.",
volume="10",
number="2",
pages="105-127",
abstract="Hazard analysis is based on computing the incidence of undesired outcomes by considering the structure of fault propagation from lesser mishaps. These events are not single-valued, but are described by random-variable distributions. The authors consider how the input-variable distributions combine into higher-order events, with particular reference to the changes in variable range and uncertainty, as indicated by the coefficient of variation. By evaluating the combination of binary, normally-distributed inputs, it is shown that the coefficient of variation of the output is lower than the larger coefficient of the inputs in the case of an OR-gate, but that the coefficient for the output from an AND-gate is always higher than the input coefficients. A numerical method for combining inputs of any kind of distribution is described, and the method is applied to an example of the reliability of a water-deluge system. The propagation of uncertainty is discussed, as well as the effect of the proof-testing period on the coefficient of variation of the system.<p />",
language="",
issn="0143-8174",
doi="10.1016/0143-8174(85)90004-6",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0143-8174(85)90004-6"
}