@article{ref1,
title="Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment",
journal="American economic journal: applied economics",
year="2011",
author="Ciccone, Antonio",
volume="3",
number="4",
pages="215-227",
abstract="Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t -- 1 and t -- 2. I show that this finding is driven by a (counterintuitive) positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t -- 2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, MSS's finding should have been due to a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t -- 1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall. (JEL D74, E32, O11, O17, O47)<p />",
language="",
issn="1945-7782",
doi="10.1257/app.3.4.215",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/app.3.4.215"
}