@article{ref1,
title="Predicting the probability for falls in community-dwelling older adults",
journal="Physical therapy",
year="1997",
author="Shumway-Cook, A. and Baldwin, M. and Polissar, Nayak Lincoln and Gruber, W.",
volume="77",
number="8",
pages="812-819",
abstract="BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The objective of this retrospective case-control study was to develop a model for predicting the likelihood of falls among community-dwelling older adults. SUBJECTS: Forty-four community-dwelling adults (> or = 65 years of age) with and without a history of falls participated. METHODS: Subjects completed a health status questionnaire and underwent a clinical evaluation of balance and mobility function. Variables that differed between fallers and nonfallers were identified, using t tests and cross tabulation with chi-square tests. A forward stepwise regression analysis was carried out to identify a combination of variables that effectively predicted fall status. RESULTS: Five variables were found to be associated with fall history. These variables were analyzed using logistic regression. The final model combined the score on the Berg Balance Scale with a self-reported history of imbalance to predict fall risk. Sensitivity was 91%, and specificity was 82%. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSION: A simple predictive model based on two risk factors can be used by physical therapists to quantify fall risk in community-dwelling older adults. Identification of patients with a high fall risk can lead to an appropriate referral into a fall prevention program. In addition, fall risk can be used to calculate change resulting from intervention.<p /><p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0031-9023",
doi="",
url="http://dx.doi.org/"
}