@article{ref1,
title="A multivariate regression model predicted falls in residents living in intermediate hostel care",
journal="Journal of clinical epidemiology",
year="2005",
author="Chen, Jian Sheng and March, Lyn M. and Schwarz, Jennifer and Zochling, J. and Makaroff, J. and Sitoh, Y. Y. and Lau, Tse Chiang and Lord, Stephen R. and Cameron, Ian D. and Cumming, Robert G. and Sambrook, Philip N.",
volume="58",
number="5",
pages="503-508",
abstract="BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether individual falls risk could be predicted in a frail elderly population. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We developed and tested an assessment tool and falls risk score for predicting falls based on a multivariate regression model in a prospective cohort study of intermediate care residents. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 1,736 falls by 1,107 subjects were recorded with an average of 170 falls per 100 person-years. Fifty percent of the study population had at least one fall within a year. Significant independent risk factors were poor balance, cognitive impairment, incontinence, higher illness severity rating, and older age. Twenty-two percent of participants with a falls risk score > or =7 accounted for 42% of the total falls, with a falls rate of 317 per 100 person-years. This rate was a sixfold increase from the falls rate of 52 per 100 person-years observed in participants with a score < 3. A high score (> or =7) indicated almost a 2 in 3 chance of falling, while a low score (<3) indicated approximately a 1 in 7 chance of falling within 6 months. CONCLUSION: The assessment tool and falls risk score could identify individuals in this frail elderly population at high risk of falls.",
language="",
issn="0895-4356",
doi="10.1016/j.jclinepi.2004.08.018",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2004.08.018"
}