@article{ref1,
title="The Probability of Nuclear War",
journal="Journal of peace research",
year="1989",
author="Avenhaus, R. and Fichtner, J. and Brams, S. J. and Kilgour, D. M.",
volume="26",
number="1",
pages="91-99",
abstract="A theoretical analysis of the probability of nuclear war is developed that assumes a starting probability and an annual reduction factor. Whatever the starting probability is, a constant reduction factor leads to an eventual probability that is less than 1, whereas the eventual probability goes to 1 if there is no reduction or if the reduction proportion decreases at a constant rate. Numerical calculations and graphical results illustrate trade-offs between the starting probabilities and the reduction factors, demonstrating especially the significance of the latter. In addition, upper and lower limits for, and approximations of, the eventual probabilities - along with measures of the rate of convergence - are derived. The applicability of the analysis to lowering the probability of nuclear war is discussed, with particular attention paid to real-life factors that seem to affect this probability.<p />",
language="",
issn="0022-3433",
doi="10.1177/0022343389026001009",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343389026001009"
}