Citation

Petrov A. Transp. Res. Proc. 2021; 57: 398-408.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2021, Elsevier Publications)

DOI

10.1016/j.trpro.2021.09.067

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

Managing traffic safety in such a large country as Russia is a challenging task. A wide variety of natural and climatic as well as socio-economic conditions contributes to the formation of a significant range of environmental factors' characteristics affecting the lifestyle of people living in different regions of Russia. The polar region is one of those specific areas where the annual seasonality is the main factor in the organization of life activity of its inhabitants. The polar night and the polar day, vacations mainly in the summer are those features that characterize the life of the population in Murmansk Region, Nenets Autonomous Area, Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area, Taymyr, the Arctic regions of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), and Chukotka Autonomous Area. The above factors significantly affect various aspects of the life of northerners. The specifics of road traffic accidents (RTAs) are no exception. The paper presents the results of comparing the RTA statistics in Murmansk Region (a prominent representative of the Arctic zone of Russia) and Leningrad Region (a constituent entity of the Northwestern Federal District of Russia) for 2015-2019. In the course of the study, we used the method of auto-regression and compared the numerical values of the coefficient of seasonal irregularity in the monthly number of RTAs KRTA irregularity. In order to identify typical/atypical patterns of RTA seasonality in the compared regions, we determined a regression model KRTA irregularity_Murmansk Region = f (KRTA irregularity_Leningrad Region). It was found that the seasonal trends of the accident rate in the polar region do not correspond to similar trends in other regions of Russia. A better understanding of RTA regional specifics (typical for the polar region) will allow for a more competent organization of traffic safety management in the Arctic zone of Russia, a differentiated approach to the choice of management methods, and rational allocation of required resources in time.

Language: en

Keywords

auto-regression method; coefficient of RTA irregularity in time; Leningrad Region; monthly number of RTAs; Murmansk Region; regression model; road traffic accidents (RTAs), seasonal specifics; RTA specifics in the polar region; seasonality; traffic safety