Citation

Soothill K, Francis B, Liu J. Br. J. Criminol. 2008; 48(4): 522-537.

Copyright

(Copyright © 2008, Centre for Crime and Justice Studies, Publisher Oxford University Press)

DOI

10.1093/bjc/azn028

PMID

unavailable

Abstract

The interrelationships between serious types of crime have been neglected. Focusing on those convicted of arson (n = 45,915), blackmail (n = 5,774), kidnapping (n = 7,291) and threats to kill (n = 9,816) in England and Wales (1979-2001), we examine the specialization and sequencing of these crimes in relation to the risk of subsequent homicide. All four offences have a heightened likelihood of subsequent homicide compared to the general population. Arson, blackmail and threats to kill have a similar homicide risk (0.8 per cent) after a 20-year follow-up; in contrast, kidnapping has a higher likelihood (1.0 per cent). Sequencing is also relevant, with those convicted of more than one type of serious offence being at higher risk of a homicide conviction. Additionally, there is evidence of specialization (particularly for arsonists) among serious offenders who recidivate.